German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) and French President Emmanuel Macron (centre) greet US President Joe Biden during the first working session of the Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia, on November 15. Macron has been a proponent of greater European strategic independence from the United States. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Thomas O. Falk
Thomas O. Falk
Europe must forge strategic independence from the US to ensure its political survival
If the EU wants to be a viable actor in the emerging world order and not merely an appendage of one of the two superpowers, it must be able to protect itself instead of relying on outside help for its security
Faced with various crises and the prospect of fading support from the United States, the European Union needs to establish strategic independence. However, the continent continues to move in circles and cannot even compromise on the basics.
The US appears to be slowly turning its back on Europe and China is positioning itself in the new bipolar world order, while Russian President Vladimir Putin has invaded a European democracy for his neo-imperial fantasies. This, in a nutshell, is the environment in which Europe finds itself.
If the EU seeks to remain or become – depending on the observer – a viable actor in this world order and not merely an appendage of one of the two superpowers, it needs the capability to protect itself as well as shape and design actionable policies.
Donald Trump’s presidency and Putin’s war in Ukraine have shown member states that the good old days of security guarantees from Washington and peace on the European continent can no longer be taken for granted. It was not a coincidence that EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen demanded in 2019 that the EU needed to learn “the language of power”.
However, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has laid bare the fact Brussels simply does not speak that language. After all, if Ukraine had relied on Europe alone, it would most likely be Russian territory by now.
Power, security and defence remain concepts where different views of 27 member states collide, and rhetoric and reality never seem on a par. The Baltic states and Poland, for instance, consider the US and Nato to be indispensable as security guarantors.
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Kishida discusses Japan’s maritime disputes with China during overseas trip to meet G7 leaders
Kishida discusses Japan’s maritime disputes with China during overseas trip to meet G7 leaders
French President Emmanuel Macron, however, is increasingly in favour of Europe’s military independence. Macron has a case. Even under President Joe Biden, the US is increasingly focusing on China and the Indo-Pacific region.
Moreover, Trump’s presidency showed that any form of dependence now comes with considerable risk. Add the 2024 presidential election to this equation, which could usher in a new period of US isolationism under a Republican president, and Macron’s plan appears even more reasonable.
However, the goal of strategic autonomy is not just about security and defence. Trade and industrial policy, finance and investment are also pivotal if the EU is to emancipate itself.
In practical terms, Europe has been the world’s champion of multilateralism and free trade for many years. One could certainly argue that the wealth acquired made the business model worthwhile, but some in Brussels have now realised that economic advantages can turn into dependencies far too quickly – Russia taking Germany hostage via natural gas being Exhibit A. Moreover, the Covid-19 pandemic showed how interrupted supply chains can have an adverse impact on Europe’s bottom line.
And then there is the overarching question of how to deal with China. Again, no shared vision exists. Germany and France, for example, have had close and beneficial economic ties with China for decades. Other European nations, such as Lithuania or the Netherlands, are much more critical of Beijing and demand precise guidelines from Brussels.
However, the dynamic is far more complex. Nationalist parties in some member states and some EU governments, such as Hungary, seek political rapprochement with China and oppose critical statements. It is Brussels’ own version of the good, the bad and the ugly – a display of lacking a coherent, united vision.
The result is that the bloc is often not perceived as a serious actor. It is paralysed and unable to act in its own interest, making autonomy unattainable. Worse, the EU’s engine – the Franco-German relationship, typically capable of providing cohesion and guidance – has started to stutter.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (left) shakes hands with President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Beijing on April 25, 2019, as part of the second Belt and Road Forum. Photo: AFP
Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have discovered a new-found proclivity for unilateral decision-making that is causing dissonance. Berlin, for example, recently introduced a €200 billion (US$216.5 billion) aid package against rising gas and electricity prices without coordinating with its neighbours.
Moreover, the Scholz government has initiated the European Sky Shield Initiative, a joint air defence project. More than a dozen other countries are signatories, but not France, which is already working with Italy on the Mamba anti-missile shield.
What makes the Franco-German dynamic even more worrisome is that smaller countries such as Poland and the Baltic states have started questioning the leadership role of Paris and Berlin. Instead of showing strength and leadership, Macron and Scholz are more concerned about being perceived as the EU’s de facto leader.
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Berlin stops Chinese companies from investing in German chip makers over security concerns
Berlin stops Chinese companies from investing in German chip makers over security concerns
With a war on European soil and an energy crisis, a Franco-German leadership void could not come at a worse time. If Europe can no longer afford energy, it will face an economic crisis and devastatingly high unemployment, with the prospect of strategic autonomy disappearing further into the distance.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has made it clear the importance of Europe reinventing itself and getting its act together. In an op-ed back in 2021, he wrote that Europe was becoming irrelevant: “Thirty years ago, the EU represented one-quarter of the world’s wealth; in 20 years, it will account for just over 10 per cent.”
If Borrell is correct, Europe’s strategic autonomy is not only a necessity but a matter of political survival. Sadly, no one seems to have told Berlin, Paris, Rome and Warsaw.
Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst
